ConditionOakland.com

No, I’m not dead, even though it’s been a whopping 3 months since my last post. As I mentioned to my friend Ryan Armbrust when I stopped writing for A Minor Consideration, I decided to cut wayyy back on my blogging so that I could focus more attention on my family as well as another business venture. So I apologize to the tiny handful of readers out there who check Condition Oakland on a somewhat regular basis, but posts will be fewer and further between but rest assured this blog is far from dead and hopefully you will still enjoy the writing.

As for our beloved Oakland A’s, I think they’ve surprised pretty much all of us by rising and staying at the top of the AL West (tied with the Angels) so far in April, certainly the best April the A’s have had in a long time:

2008: 14-9, 0.609 PCT, 109 RS vs. 82 RA

2007: 11-10, 0.524 PCT, 77 RS vs. 71 RA

2006: 9-12, 0.429 PCT, 86 RS vs. 106 RA

2005: 9-11, 0.450 PCT, 70 RS vs. 84 RA

2004: 10-9, 0.526 PCT, 82 RS vs. 82 RA

A friend of mine, skeptical of the off-season moves Beane made, summed it up simply: “I can’t believe it….Billy Beane has shut me up, again.” The A’s traded arguably their best (healthy) pitcher and best hitter for a bunch of high level, young (read: inexperienced) prospects and have climbed their way to the top with a bunch of players who were in AAA  less than a year ago.

In my day-to-day at work and at home talking with friends and family, one of the questions that has repeatedly come up is “How have they done this?”. So I’m going to outline some of the more pertinent details that have come up in my own discussions and address them here.

1) How have the A’s done this?

It certainly hasn’t been with a powerful offense as the A’s rank dead last tied with the Twins and Royals for fewest HR hit in the American League and the fourth lowest SLG. More than anything, and like I always say, it’s the pitching:

Lowest team ERA (3.19)

Lowest team BAA (0.239)

Fewest runs allowed (82)

Third in strikeouts (157)

Tied for fourth in fewest walks allowed (67)

Fourth in fewest hits allowed (187)

With Haren gone, veterans Rich Harden and The Duke injured, and a questionable Gaudin coming in after off-season surgery, it’s been the young rookies acquired in the off-season who have really stepped up to the plate:

Dana Eveland: 1.90 ERA, 23.2 IP, 17 H, 11 BB, 18 SO, 1.18 WHIP (Ranked fourth in league ERA)

Greg Smith: 2.88 ERA, 25 IP, 21 H, 8 BB, 16 SO, 1.16 WHIP (Ranked 14th in league ERA)

And let’s not diminish the efforts of Oakland’s incumbent starting pitchers, Gaudin and Blanton:

Gaudin: 3.38 ERA, 24 IP, 20 H, 6 BB, 19 SO, 1.08 WHIP

Blanton: 4.32 ERA, 50 H, 7 BB, 18 SO, 1.37 WHIP

Gaudin has had a couple of nice outings and seems to have recovered from his off-season surgeries just fine. Blanton is a workhorse who ranks first in the league in IP, although his WHIP is a bit high for my liking. Eveland, Smith, and Gaudin all rank within the top 20 starting pitchers in ERA and only one other team can count 3 of their starters in the top 20 (Cleveland). While I’m doubtful that Eveland and Smith will maintain these numbers - at some point the league’s going to start figuring them out - they both are top prospects with plenty of talent who should continue to be valuable members of the A’s rotation. So while I expect some moderation to their success I think they will still be solid starters.

How about the offense? I already mentioned their lack of power and I remember reading somewhere an analyst commented about their high number of strikeouts, but how about their OBP? While certainly not at the top, they rank a respectable fifth in team OBP at 0.341, which is more impressive considering their fairly middle-of-the-road team BA of 0.260 (the A’s have a higher OBP than the Yankees with their 0.269 team BA). Jack Cust and Daric Barton rank second and fourth in the league, respectively, in total walks (Cust is tied at second with former Athletic Nick Swisher while Barton is tied at fourth with the Angels Chone Figgins). Those numbers are even more impressive when you realize that Cust has 13 fewer at bats than Swisher and 18 at bats less than league leader Nick Markakis. Kurt Suzuki ranks a close second in BA for catchers at 0.316, only 3 points behind the White Sox’ Pierzinski. And while the A’s are lacking in HR, they lead the league in triples at 8 (next highest is 4) while at least being average in doubles.

2) Why do the A’s keep finding ways to keep Cust in the lineup? He’s only batting 0.161!

True. But - prior to bringing Frank Thomas back to Oakland - Cust was the only real power threat in a lineup sorely lacking real power. And let’s not forget that along with that pathetic BA Cust is still spotting an attractive OBP of 0.373 with his 18 walks in 19 games. That’s a better OBP than Denorfia, Crosby, Ellis, R. Sweeney, and Brown. The only players with a higher OBP are Barton (0.262 BA), Suzuki (0.316 BA), and M. Sweeney (0.322 BA). If Cust’s bat ever heats up, he’ll probably lead the team and rank near the top of the league in OBP.

The other thing to remember about Cust is that he is one of the streakiest hot-cold hitters out there. Let’s look at the month-by-month breakdown of 2007:

May - 0.222 / 0.411 / 0.611 - 8 HR / 4 2B

June - 0.329 / 0.400 / 0.570 - 5 HR / 4 2B

July - 0.213 / 0.344 / 0.413 - 4 HR / 3 2B

August - 0.314 / 0.470 / 0.593 - 6 HR / 4 2B / 1 3B

September - 0.193 / 0.404 / 0.337 - 3 HR / 3 2B

Those are some pretty wide swings, month to month. Not to mention there aren’t really any big threats hitting around him in the lineup so he’s not getting as many good pitches to hit. Add on to that the fact that this is only his second full year in the majors and pitchers have probably learned to pitch to him. Still, he’s managing to keep his walk rate up and provided he can make adjustments I’m confident we’ll see a hot month or two from Cust. Perhaps the presence of The Big Hurt in the lineup will allow Cust to see more fastballs to feast on.

3) Is Bobby Crosby for real?

Count me amongst the vast number of Bobby Crosby haters out there who were just plain sick of watching Crosby flail wildly at outside pitches. All I can say is, if Crosby keeps this up - and manages to avoid any freak injuries - I’ll take back all the bad things I used to say about him. That it took him more than 2 years to finally realize what was obvious to everyone else with his plate approach and swing (and actually work on it heavily during the off-season) is a bit worrisome to say the least. To be that stubborn with your swing and approach when it’s so obvious you need to make an adjustment…. I’m just concerned that the next time pitchers make an adjustment to Crosby that he might stubbornly take 2-3 years to adjust again. For now, we can all smile and enjoy a healthy Crosby contributing positively to the lineup. He’s in what are normally a player’s peak performance years and if he can finally stay consistently in the lineup he might be in for a career year.

4) Who do you like better, Donnie Murphy or Jack Hannahan?  

That’s a tough one. I enjoyed watching Scutaro play, but letting him go was the right thing to do, he was no longer a value considering his higher costs. In his place are Murphy and Hannahan, both capable backups with what I consider plus defense and both with different, but decent, bats.

I like Murphy for his power, although I wouldn’t consider him a power threat. He hit 6 HR last season and 8 doubles as a part-time in-fielder off the bench in only 118 AB for a SLG of 0.441, not too shabby. However, he also batted only 0.220 with 10 walks and a whopping 35 strikeouts.

I like Hannahan’s approach at the plate and evidently the A’s do too, with Hannahan taking up 3B almost permanently in Chavez’s absence. Unfortunately he’s in a bit of a slump with his 0.185 BA, but that’s countered by a patient approach at the plate where he’s averaging 4.48 pitches per plate appearance and 12 walks for a reasonable OBP of 0.328. That part of his approach hasn’t changed, as he averaged more than 4 pitches per plate appearance in 2007 and also racked up a decent number of 21 walks in 144 AB for a strong OBP of 0.369 along with a 0.793 OPS. Like any young player, Hannahan’s going to go through some slumps and need to make adjustments, but he has a nice approach.

As for defense, I like them both fine, although watching Hannahan at 3B I think he has the edge at the hot corner. I can see why the A’s wanted to keep both of them and I’m glad they did, but it’s going to be interesting to see what happens if and when Eric Chavez comes back healthy.

That’s about all I have time for now, but I’ll have more to post later.

Over at A Minor Consideration where Farhan Zaidi runs down the list of prospects the A’s recently acquired and mentions a couple of under-the-radar farmhands that might step up in 2008. Key quote:

Ultimately, the decision-makers in this organization aren’t satisfied with mediocrity, and are willing to take risks to get us to the point of achieving great things. As a fan, that is exactly the type of ownership and management I would want running my team.

Also, updated my Tentative A’s Opening Day roster with some salary numbers. It’s the first entry on my blogroll.

I was surprised but pleased to see the news that Kirk Saarloos is back with the A’s after his disastrous year with Cincinnati. I know some fans are scratching their heads at this move, but this is a win-win for both sides. Saarloos returns to familiar territory where he has a chance to get his game back and the A’s get an innings eater whom they know all too well and all it cost them was a minor league contract.

Unless none of the A’s many pitching prospects do well in Spring Training, I doubt that Saarloos will be on the team opening day. But the chances of Harden, The Duke, and Gaudin pitching at 100% by opening day, much less staying healthy (and effective), throughout the season are doubtful. Just like when he was with the A’s before, Saarloos could be called upon again to fill in when a starter goes down or plug the bullpen if they need help there. Kirk is a guy who pretty much fits the definition of a team player: wherever the A’s have needed him in the past, he has been there. He’s started games, served mop-up duty, pitched out of the bullpen, and even closed a few games. As far as I know he’s done this without complaint, accepting the role as the fill-in guy wherever the club has needed him.

Let’s be honest, he’s not a star nor even an above average pitcher. You’re going to get an excellent fielding, control/groundball pitcher who at best is going to give you league-average/slightly above league-average numbers. He won’t strike out a ton of guys and allows far too many baserunners, but when he’s on he’ll fare better than most. With such a young, inexperienced staff who are also a huge injury risk, it’s nice to have someone you know to back you up.  He’s certainly a better option as a backup than Colby Lewis or Dallas Braden, in my opinion.

As you most likely already know, Mark Kotsay is no longer an Athletic, having been traded to Atlanta for cash and not one, but two RHP prospects. The first, and the one that had been getting all the attention over the weekend, was 2005 first round pick Joey Devine. But the A’s also got a young farmhand from Atlanta named Jamie Richmond, also a RHP.  Just who is Jamie Richmond?

Jamie Richmond was a 31st round draft pick by Atlanta in 2004 at the age of 18 out of Cawthraw Secondary School in Mississauga, Ontario, Canada, which is a suburb of the Toronto area. From looking at his minor league numbers it appears the Atlanta organization wanted to ease him into their farm system, possibly because of his young age, as he spent the first two years in rookie-ball and didn’t pitch more than 100 innings until last year. In 2007 he pitched for low-A Rome in the South Atlantic League, starting 24 games and going 7-6 with a 3.05 ERA, 98 SO, and 25 BB in 138.2 IP. He has a career WHIP of 1.06 in the minor leagues, displaying good control with only 31 BB in a career 217.1 IP and only 9 HR surrendered. That last number is quite impressive, as all 9 HR were surrendered in his 138.2 IP in 2007. He doesn’t appear to be a strong strikeout pitcher and with the low HR rate I can only assume he relies on control and groundballs to get batters out - he had a 1.14 GO/AO ratio in 2007 and 2.26 in 2006.

John Sickels has Richmond listed as the Braves #13 prospect in 2008 with a C+ grade, a downgrade from 2007 when Sickels rated him a B and the number 8 prospect in the system. Richmond was the Appalachian pitcher of the year in 2006 and was a Baseball America Rookie All-Star.

A brief look around the Braves blogosphere and the general consensus seems to be that the Braves got fleeced, with their fans not too happy about getting the oft-injured Kotsay while giving up 2 promising prospects. Will Schaffer at Chop-n-Change says “…Frank Wren just pretty much got hosed…“. Corey Bishop at Blabberin’ Braves proclaims “…By the way, just so your old team, the A’s, don’t feel like they are getting ripped off, we’re sending them another really good pitching prospect, Jamie Richmond……Horrible trade!…“. And finally gondee over at Talking Chop has a post titled Kotsay Deal Goes from Bad to Worse.

So only time will tell how this trade works out, but I must say I am very pleased. Kotsay hasn’t had a decent (or healthy) season since 2005 and his performance post-back surgery 2007 was a disaster and he ended up being shelved again anyways. I really liked Kotsay’s gritty play and outstanding defense in CF, particularly after enduring years of a sub-par outfield, and he had an outstanding debut season with the A’s. But count me as one of the many fans relieved to see Kotsay’s back become someone else’s problem. I would have been happy if Beane had managed to get ANYONE for Kotsay, much less two promising pitching prospects, one of whom is close to the big leagues and the other who is still young and has plenty of development years ahead of them. The A’s are $5 million poorer, but that’s not such a bad price to pay for 2 minor league prospects and getting Kotsay’s offensive numbers off the roster.

Update: Kotsay passed his physical, it’s a done deal and the A’s are not only getting Devine but also young RHP Jamie Richmond.  While the A’s are certainly having to give up a good chunk of Kotsay’s salary, I have to think that Billy Beane once again came out ahead in this deal. He gets a 2005 first round pick who projects as a future closer or solid set up man in Devine as well as another young farm hand who has time to develop in the A’s system.

Word on ESPN.com is that, pending positive results of a physical for Mark Kotsay, that the A’s will get pitching prospect Joey Devine from the Atlanta organization:

In return for Kotsay, the Braves are trading pitcher Joey Devine, and Oakland will assume $5.325 million of the $7.325 million owed to the center fielder for this year.

Devine is a 2005 first round draft pick who has dominated in the minors but struggled at the big league level. He has a career minor league ERA of 2.73 with 162 SO in 112.1 IP and a 1.16 WHIP. He’s still fairly young at 23 and saw brief stints at the major league level in 2005, 2006, and 2007. His major league shows an unimpressive ERA of 6.86 with 19.2 IP. Why? While he struck out 20 batters in those 19.2 innings, he also walked 22 and gave up 21 hits for an ugly WHIP of 2.19.

With the A’s picking up $5.325 mil of Kotsay’s salary for Atlanta, that effectively makes Emil Brown the $6.775 million dollar man - not a whole lot less than Kotsay was going to cost the A’s in 2007. However, if Emil Brown can stay healthier than Kotsay (shouldn’t be too difficult) than this could be another win in Beane’s book, as he also gets yet another top prospect to add to the farm.

I’ve been remiss in pointing out that you can get the low-down on all the new A’s prospects that Billy Beane has acquired over at my old haunting ground, A Minor Consideration. Ryan Armbrust and Andrew Pentis have done a good job breaking them down on a one-by-one basis. Click on each name for a link to A Minor Consideration’s take on the prospects:

Ryan Sweeney:

Before the 2007 season, Baseball America tabbed Sweeney as the top prospect in an admittedly thin White Sox farm system. Still, most agree that he stands a good chance of being a big league regular. BA deemed Sweeney as being the best defensive outfielder (including the best arm), and being the best hitter for average in the system.

Fautino De Los Santos:

There has to be some risk in De Los Santos. He has just one full year under his belt, and (despite what the “experts” say) has yet to fully develop a dependable third pitch.

It’s his ceiling which excites. And now the A’s future rotation may be dominating if it includes: the newly-acquired De Los Santos, Gonzalez, Brett Anderson and just-drafted James Simmons and Trevor Cahill. But some think De Los Santos is already tops in that group loaded with potential.

Gio Gonzalez:

He’s a left-handed strikeout machine that relies on an excellent curve, an above-average changeup and a good fastball (92-94 mph) to get hitters out. He reminds some of a slightly smaller Barry Zito, but with a bit more life on his fastball and not quite as ridiculous a curve. He pitches from a three-quarter arm slot with a high leg kick, and has a fundamentally sound delivery. Knock on wood, but there haven’t been any indications of health risks or fragility with Gonzalez so far.

Aaron Cunningham:

Like the other prospects arriving in the vaunted Dan Haren-trade, Cunningham is talented, but inexperienced. While he does not pose the same risk of Carlos Gonzalez, Cunningham’s ceiling is limited. He just seems to be one of those guys (Rowand, David Eckstein, etc.) who find a way to stick on an MLB roster. But the young outfielder is likely at least two years away from the show. He should spend 2008 with Midland (AA), though a fast start may earn him an even faster call-up to Sacramento (AAA).

Chris Carter:

I see Carter beginning the season with high-A Stockton in the California League, and possibly spending the last month of the season at AA Midland — if all goes well. He needs to improve his defense before he can move too far, but he’ll be given every chance to do so. He’s a power-hitting righty, which is something of a gap in the A’s system. I don’t think I’m too far off to predict a .292/.390/.520/.910 season for Carter, with somewhere around 25 home runs.

Greg Smith:

Smith, who turns 24 today, may prove to be similar to the A’s Jason Windsor: a polished college arm who may struggle to bring a strong mound presence but average stuff to the big show.

The “soft-tossing lefty,” ranked as the D-Backs 27th best prospect by Scout.com, is currently slated to join Shane Komine, Windsor and Brad Knox in the (AAA) Sacramento Rivercats rotation; but, look for him to get a long look in spring training. He will likely be considered, alongside newly-acquired Dana Eveland, in the hunt for the A’s suddenly average starting-five.

Dana Eveland:

So, why would Billy The Kid Beane give Eveland a shot at his starting rotation based on this, no matter how bare the cupboard?

Well, he would not. Billy the Kid is hoping the plump LHP shows the promise he did with his MiLB numbers. And like his fellow statisticians, only the most recent evidence is of the best barometer.

• Exhibit A: While pitching for Nashville (AAA) in 2006, Eveland recorded a 2.74 e.r.a. in 20 games [19 starts] with a 110:41 ratio in 105 IP (reaching the Brett Anderson stratosphere).
• Exhibit B: In 9 games [7 starts] split between Visalia (A) and Tucson (AAA), Eveland notched a 1.65 e.r.a. with a 24:12 ratio in 32.2 IP

Brett Anderson:

You can tell that the general consensus on Anderson is that while there are a few questions about his ability to stay healthy due to his build, he’s still a stellar young pitcher with great potential. I agree completely with that take on him. I believe that as he progresses upwards, he’ll be given plenty of help from trainers to help him maintain a healthy regimen of diet and workouts. His ability and pitching poise will take him the rest of the way.

Carlos Gonzalez:

However, Gonzalez is still very much a top prospect. Baseball America ranked him the No. 1 player in the Arizona system for good reason. He immediately becomes Oakland’s top outfield prospect, ahead of Jermaine Mitchell and Corey Brown — two other young five-tool corner outfielders. Gonzalez is where we thought we’d see Javier Herrera this past season, before his Tommy John surgery and PED suspension set him back.

Update: As per Susan Slusser, Brown will be paid $1.45 mil + incentives. But I think it would be fair to see how much the A’s have to give Atlanta (if the deal goes through) for Kotsay to see the real cost of Brown. Still, $1.45 mil is a pretty good deal - IF the A’s use Brown wisely against LHP. Oh, and also I just realized  I mistakenly put Brown’s RF at CF at .268 (d’oh!) below and have corrected it to show 2.68.

First off, I will be updating my own tentative 2008 Oakland A’s starting day roster regularly as news and deals come in. I’ve permalinked it as the first entry in my blogroll, so it’s easy to find for anyone who wants to know my latest thoughts on the starting day roster or how the 2008 payroll is shaping up.

On to Emil Brown. The A’s agreed to sign Emil Brown to a 1-year deal today:

In what sources suggest is a precursor to the trade of Mark Kotsay to the Braves that’s making the rumor-mill rounds, the A’s on Friday signed former Oakland farmhand Emil Brown to a one-year contract for the 2008 season. Financial terms were not disclosed.

MLB.com on Friday got confirmation from multiple sources that the A’s and Braves are close to finalizing a deal that would send Kotsay, 32, and cash to Atlanta for at least one high- to mid-level prospect, but the most connected such source said the deal “absolutely” wouldn’t be closed before Monday.

Brown was originally drafted by the A’s and subsequently toiled in the minor league organizations of Pittsburgh, San Diego, Tampa Bay, Cincinnati, St Louis, and Houston, seeing limited playing time at the big league level with Pittsburgh and San Diego before finally making it permanently with Kansas City in 2005 at the age of 30. He has a career minor league line of 0.295 / 0.370 / 0.452 vs. a career big league line of 0.262 / 0.329 / 0.401.

I have no idea what the A’s are paying him, but hopefully they got him for a good deal because offensively he doesn’t look much better than Kotsay and while he’s played all 3 outfield positions he’s spent most of his time in the corners, not CF. Although it’s interesting to note (small sample size warning, on Brown’s account) that they both have some similar stats in CF:

Kotsay: 0.988 / 2.67 / 0.878

Brown: 0.983 / 2.68 / 0.897

(Code: Fielding Percentage / Range Factor / Zone Rating)

Versatility is obviously a factor in the A’s thinking if Kotsay leaves, with an inexperienced Chris Denorfia in the OF. But the real reason the A’s probably snagged Brown is because he is a right handed bat in a sea of A’s lefties and he does very well against left-handed pitching. In 2007 Brown hit LHP to the tune of 0.317 / 0.375 / 0.448 and his 3-year average from 2005-2007 vs. LHP is 0.289 / 0.353 / 0.488. As long as the A’s use him primarily against LHP, he could be a nice addition to the lineup. While he doesn’t steal a lot of bases, he does so at a nice 82% success rate over the past 3 seasons. And let’s not forget he also had two +0.800 OPS seasons in 2005 and 2006. Unfortunately, like some A’s batters, he has a history of getting off to a very slow start, with an average OPS less than 0.600 in the month of April over his past 3 years. He seems to pick things up as the season progresses, though.

I’m pending judgement until I see the price tag, hopefully Brown’s poor performance in 2007 make him an affordable right-handed bat against lefties, otherwise this might be another one of Beane’s head-scratching 1-year deals. Last, but not least, here’s an interesting profile on Brown from Royals Review:

What does Emil do well?

1. He makes good adjustments at the plate during games. His OPS increases each time he faces a pitcher in the same night. On his 1st plate appearance he OPSs .630, the second time it is up to .738. By the third time he sees a pitcher he is Ruthian. .339/.400/.515. Maybe this is why Brown is so adept at bringing home runs? He is a smart hitter. He makes adjustments.
2. We’ve all known for years Brown works hard at his game. He didn’t become an MLB starter until he was 30 years old. His development might have been slowed when he lost most of 1997 sitting on the bench in Pittsburg. The Pirates had taken him as a Rule-5 selection that year and just hid him on the far end of the pine all season. Emil’s career fell off track after that lost summer and by 2002 he was hanging on at high-A Durham and in the Mexican League. Alan Baird’s spring training invitation to Brown in 2005 represented his final long shot, and he seized it by ripping the cover off the ball all spring (.421/.493/.719) to earn a roster spot when the team migrated north. You have to like the concentrated effort and determination displayed by the guy during his 11 year struggle to fulfill his dream. Emil had nothing handed to him.
2. Brown holds a very dangerous bat when facing left handed pitching. Even though last year his overall numbers were truly poor, he still OPSed .823 in 160 plate appearances against lefties. For his career his L/R OPS split is .777 vs. .706. If nothing else, Brown could be half of an excellent platoon at DH or LF.
3. Brown has been successful in 28 of 35 stolen base attempts. He is a good example of a guy who knows how to take a base despite not having a lot of foot speed. While it is a frustrating situation, Brown, Teahen and Gordon are the best Royals at stealing bases, not DeJesus, German or Gathright. It is what it is.
4. And finally, while Brown does come off in interviews as suffering from some level of delusion, as far as I can tell he is a pretty good team player. He has never gone on the DL in his three years in KC. He is a dependable professional.

Update: 1-29-08: Added salary info for Chad Gaudin who agreed to $1.775 million in arbitration.

Update 1-21-08: Added salary info for Joe Blanton who agreed to $3.7 million in arbitration.

Update 1-18-08: Added salary info for Huston Street who agreed to $3.3 million in arbitration. Supposedly a multi-year contract is in the works for Street.

Update 1-12-08: Added salary info for Emil Brown’s 1-year deal and updated 2008 payroll for known salaries.

Update 1-11-08: Added salary info for The Duke ($1.2 mil), removed Kotsay pending possible trade with Atlanta (A’s will have to eat most of his salary, I assume), and added OF Emil Brown (salary unknown) who is with the A’s on a 1-year contract.

2008 Payroll (only known salaries to date): $39.325 million

Not that I think Billy Bean is done with his off-season moves, by any means, but I figured it was time to start hammering out a tentative 2008 opening day 25-man roster. Obviously I will be updating it as players change hands (Blanton? Street?) and like I did last year I’ll add player salaries as reported at the excellent resource Cot’s Baseball Contracts. One other thing I’m going to add is that particular player’s 2008 ZiPS Projection via Baseball Think Factory. However, if and when Ryan Armbrust puts together another one of his Grand Unified Projections, I’ll post those figures instead. This is all speculation at this point and it’s really just a guess as to who will make the 25-man starting day roster - we’ll see how Spring Training and future trades work out, but here’s my take on it:

SP - Rich Harden - $4.5 mil - 92 IP / 2.74 ERA

SP - Joe Blanton - $3.7 mil - 211 IP / 4.22 ERA

SP - Chad Gaudin - $1.775 mil - 190 IP / 4.55 ERA

SP - Justin Duchscherer - $1.2 mil - 3.05 ERA (as a reliever - need updated data)

SP/RP - Lenny DiNardo - $0.9 Mil - 111 IP / 4.62 ERA

SP/RP - Dan Meyer - ??? - 115 IP / 5.95 ERA

RP - Kiko Calero - ??? - 53 IP / 3.74 ERA

RP - Huston Street - $3.3 Mil - 71 IP / 2.92 ERA

RP - Alan Embree - $3 Mil - 57 IP / 4.42 ERA

RP - Fernando Hernandez - ??? - 85 IP / 3.06 ERA* (last year’s Minor League numbers)

RP - Andrew Brown - ??? - 62 IP / 4.50 ERA

RP - Santiago Casilla - ??? - 69 IP / 4.17 ERA

1B/DH - Daric Barton - ??? - 504 AB / 0.280 BA / 0.369 OBP / 0.440 SLG

1B/DH - Dan Johnson - ??? - 461 AB / 0.267 BA / 0.369 OBP / 0.462 SLG

2B - Mark Ellis - $5 mil - 488 AB / 0.273 BA / 0.335 OBP / 0.418 SLG

SS - Bobby Crosby - $3.5 mil - 354 AB / 0.240 BA / 0.305 OBP / 0.353 SLG

IF - Donnie Murphy - ??? - 322 AB / 0.252 BA / 0.305 OBP / 0.413 SLG

IF - Jack Hannahan - ??? - 349 AB / 0.258 BA / 0.362 OBP / 0.375 SLG

3B - Eric Chavez - $11 mil - 490 AB / 0.259 BA / 0.341 OBP / 0.453 SLG

OF - Emil Brown - $1.45 mil - (to be updated later)

OF/DH - Jack Cust - ??? - 428 AB / 0.264 BA / 0.394 OBP / 0.470 SLG

OF - Travis Buck - ??? - 332 AB / 0.283 BA / 0.360 OBP / 0.458 SLG

OF - Chris Denorfia - ??? - 429 AB / 0.282 BA / 0.350 OBP / 0.438 SLG

C - Kurt Suzuki - ??? - 404 AB / 0.248 BA / 0.325 OBP / 0.369 SLG

C - Rob Bowen - ??? - 184 AB / 0.255 BA / 0.349 OBP / 0.397 SLG

On first glance, that’s a lot of at bats for Dan Johnson. You’ve effectively got 3 players at DH in Barton, Cust, and Johnson, none of whom are famous for their gloves, but probably won’t embarrass you either. I can only assume that if all our OFers are healthy that Cust will be juggled in between DH and RF duties while Barton and Johnson will switch off at 1B, with Barton getting the bulk of playing time. On paper, this looks like a pretty pedestrian team. And we haven’t even talked about what happens if/when Blanton and Street get traded. Outside of Cust, Barton, and Buck there isn’t anyone that really stands out offensively. If Rich Harden can stay healthy enough to actually pitch 100+ innings and Chad Gaudin’s troubles disappear post-surgery, then I actually think the starting pitching won’t be too awful - not good, mind you, but certainly not awful. The bullpen has too many question marks, in my opinion. I think Embree was more luck than skill last season and Calero has a big hill to climb after last season’s numbers. The rest of the bullpen is young and talented, but too unpredictable in how they will turn out.

So far this is a payroll of $35 million for players with guaranteed salaries/options, with $19 mil (54%) of that going to just 2 players - Kotsay and Chavez. I believe league minimum for 2008 is $390k, and while I haven’t had time to properly research all the question marks above, that would mean approximately $5.85 mil more to cover them for a total of $40.85 mil not including Arb Eligible players. Bottom line, total payroll for the 25-man roster will probably be somewhere between $40-50 mil.

As I said this is simply a guess at this point and I’ll fill it out and make changes as we get closer to opening day.

When Hudson and Mulder were traded to Atlanta and St. Louis for a bunch of prospects, it was hard to deal with, but I always thought after that shock to the system that I could handle any kind of surprise announcement from the A’s. But Billy Beane has proved me wrong again by trading Swisher to Chicago for 3 prospects, which I honestly have to say I never thought he would do. After signing a long-term deal through 2011, with a club option for 2012, and being a favorite of Billy Beane, I thought he was untouchable. Apparently I wasn’t the only one:

Beane confirmed that, empahsizing that the A’s never shopped Swisher.

“They started pushing the envelope in the last two weeks,” Beane said of the White Sox. “We were adamant that if we going to consider it, there were a couple of players who absolutely had to be in it.”

If the prospects are as good as people say they are, this could be another infamous Kenny Williams fleecing. His quote alone got me thinking along these lines:

Williams also said, “Swisher was not a player who was on the market. They did not want to move him. So we had to make it attractive enough for them to move him.”

So it looks like Beane made it clear that if Kenny wanted Swisher that badly, that he was going to have to pay up. And pay up he did, giving Billy Beane exactly what he wanted: RHP Fautino de los Santos, LHP Gio Gonzalez, and OF Ryan Sweeney, ranked #1, #2, and #8, respectively, in the Chicago White Sox farm system by Baseball Prospectus, and ranked #2, #1, and #5, respectively, by John Sickels. Further evidence that this trade might be in Beane’s favor can be found simply perusing SouthSideSox. The top story, as of right now, is a listing of John Sickel’s White Sox top 20 prospects list, along with the comment

Compiled before today’s fleecing:

Within Sickel’s linked post, Sickel’s comments that “…this trade guts the top levels of the White Sox system.” And further below the author of the post adds

“guts” is putting it too kindly; and don’t forget chris carter…

For you A’s fans still coming to grips with Swisher in a White Sox uniform, the fans at SouthSideSox seem extremely upset with this trade. In this post they call the trade “…Highway Robbery…” Be sure to scroll down and read some of the comments as well. One commenter notes “…absolutely criminal to trade those players for 3 years of swisher.”

As for the A’s blogosphere, here’s a roundup of reactions:

My pal Ryan over at A Minor Consideration sounds like he’s still digesting the trade:

I don’t think that moving Swisher was the right thing to do, since he’s a young, talented player with plenty of experience and production. He’ll continue to produce for quite a while, at a reasonable price, and was a clubhouse leader for a young team.

While it’s far, far too early to say whether Beane made a mistake, the reality is that both Gonzalez and De Los Santos will have to be productive members of the rotation for a few years to balance out the loss of Nick Swisher.

Blez at Athletics Nation picked John Sickel’s mind for his thoughts on the trade:

Blez: If you put the Swisher deal together with the Haren deal, how much have the A’s improved their farm system?

Sickels: Well, look at the Top 20 list I posted a few days ago at MinorLeagueBall.com. These two trades, plus the good early returns on the 2007 draft class, completely rebuild the farm system. It has been a huge infusion of talent in a short period of time. 2008 might be a rough year, but the future looks really good. Masterful rebuilding by Beane.

Ken at Catfish Stew is taking it all in stride:

When you look at the combined trades of Haren and Swisher, what Beane has received in return is a possible Haren in de los Santos, a possible Swisher in Carlos Gonzalez, plus a possible Blanton or two in Brett Anderson and Gio Gonzalez. It will be fun and interesting to add all this up when the ordeal is overwith.

Elephants in Oakland repeats the same line from the Haren trade:

I like the trade. I like it because it gets the A’s minor league system some breathing room. Kudos to Beane and Forst. They admit there is a problem and got four very good prospects for one very good pitcher. The A’s didn’t give up, they gave in.

Melissa at Athletics Supporters says that the A’s farm team games could be pretty exciting this year:

The A’s are most likely not done trading yet, but even if they were to stop today, they are in far better shape for the future than they were a month ago. Their talent in the outfield has deepened considerably and they have a large enough group of pitching prospects that even if half of them fail, they could still have a dynamic pitching staff in two years. And that list prospects doesn’t even include Chris Carter, a power-hitting first baseman/DH type who some feel could be like Jermaine Dye as a hitter, who was also acquired in the Haren deal.

The 2008 Oakland A’s will likely be difficult to watch in terms of winning big league games, but if you live in the Sacramento, Midland, Stockton, or Geneva areas, the A’s affiliates in your area will be fun to watch.

So the A’s aren’t just rebuilding, they are literally gutting the system for the future. I can only hope that Crosby has a good enough season to make him valuable enough for a trade at some point and as much as I like Chavez, nobody comes back from those surgeries (three of them) the same person, much less the same player.  And unfortunately, thanks to his health and steep contract, he isn’t going anywhere, at least for awhile. Anyone else of value, no matter how young (Blanton, Street) are fair game. Still, if Beane can continue to rack up blockbuster moves like this one and Haren, the A’s could be competitive for years to come.

There’s not much more to comment on regarding the Haren to Arizona trade - along with Connor Robertson - for prospects Brett Anderson, Dana Eveland, Greg Smith, Chris Carter, Aaron Cunningham, and Carlos Gonzalez other than I think it’s a good trade for Oakland. While I hate to see Haren go, with Gaudin undergoing hip and foot surgery, Harden still experiencing “lingering” tendinitis issues, Chavez recovering from three surgeries, The Duke recovering from his hip injury and not having pitched in a year, and Kotsay’s continuous back problems, 2008 was already shaping up to be a repeat of 2007 - with Gaudin’s surgery and Harden’s question mark being the straws that broke the camel’s back. Starting pitching has been in high demand this off-season and Haren’s value is extremely high right now coming off of a very good season with a very economical contract in place. Only time will tell if this was a deal ala Mark Mulder 2004 (Dan Haren, Kiko Calero, Daric Barton) or Tim Hudson (Charles Thomas, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz).However, I’m leaning towards a positive result. If only two out of the six prospects turn into solid big league players for the A’s, I’d consider that a plus in my book. If those two happen to be starting pitchers, even better. Three or more and I would count it as a steal on a Mark Mulder-type level. Even the others that might not project as every day major league players will certainly improve the A’s thin farm system and could be used as trade fodder in future Billy Beane moves.

Out of the pitchers only Dana Eveland appears to be ready to step into a Major League role, similar to that of Dan Haren’s circa 2005. While I certainly don’t know too much about Eveland, I thought it would be interesting to compare his numbers to Haren’s. Let’s take a look at some of the raw numbers via The Baseball Cube:

Continue reading ‘Dana Eveland vs Dan Haren’